The Reason for the Great Global Recession





Global Recession Affected Industries

Airline Industry
Automobile Industry
Banking Industry
Education Industry
Hotel Industry
Real Estate Industry
Software Industry
Tourism Industry



Global Recession Affected Professions

Aviators
Bankers
Contractors
Engineers
IT Professionals
Managers [ MBAs ] 



What is Great Global Recession ? – Great Global Recession is defined as a significant Decline in Activity across the Economy, lasting longer than a few Months. It is mainly visible in Industrial Production, general Employment, Per-capita Income and Wholesale & Retail Trade. 

A normal Indicator of Great Global Recession is Two consecutive Quarters of negative Economic Growth which is measured by a Country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 



Recession is a Global phenomena. About 90% of the working Population has been directly affected by it worldwide. The People indirectly affected by Recession are the Families of Workers. We will go into more depth of this Global crisis in detail in this as-well-as following Chapters.

1981 – 1990: It all started way back in 1980s when the transition from Papers to Digital form was just beginning and the Boom which we witnessed 20 years back, was in its initial phase. This was a Time when even Television was seen as a Luxury. Lifestyle and Infrastructure was very basic and Education till Graduation was appreciated a lot. Letters which were typed using Typewriters instead of hand-written ones, were considered more important. People were aware about the presence of Computers somewhere on Earth but seeing one and working on it was still a far-fetched Dream. Even imagining one was impossible for many upper-Middle class individuals. The Terms ‘Information Technology (IT)’ and ‘Information Technology Enabled Services (ITES)’, which are commonly used now, were not even coined.

By the end of 80s, various Typewriting Courses were on its peak and Typewriting Speed was a main criteria of Selection for various positions in Offices. It opened a lot of Job opportunities for People especially Middle-class Girls, who became employable after basic Education and doing a course in Typewriting which was also out-of-reach for many Households. 



1991 – 2000: End of 1980s and beginning of 1990s saw the introduction of Computers in India by our former Prime Minister, Late Captain Rajiv Gandhi. It was a Revolution in Indian Industry and we are still grateful to Capt Gandhi for the same. By the middle of the Decade, the basic Infrastructure was completed.

Computerisation of various Government Offices was rampant as a much-required drive. Demand for Typewriting Courses started slowing down and its place was taken up by Computer Courses. Various big and small Computer Training Institutes mushroomed like NIIT, APTECH, UPTECH etc, besides several others throughout the Country. Demand by Students to learn operating a Computer was extreme and supply was low. 

Demand for Computer-literate Professionals for various Government and Private Jobs also flourished and a better Future was welcoming everybody. Even little Knowledge of Computers was enough. The Per-capita Income increased with the opening up of various Entrepreneurial Ventures wholly based on Computers. Many new Courses on Software and Hardware Engineering in Colleges came up which witnessed a heavy interest by Students. Also, the Fees for such Courses was sky-high but yet the Demand was at its peak too. Thus, by the end of this Decade, we saw the dawn of Information Technology in India which was set to position India firmly on the Global Map of Technical expertise.

2001 – 2010: The advent of 21st Century was special. Computers had established themselves in India and Supply of IT Education was equal to the Demand. Lots of Management Colleges also mushroomed and were in high Demand. MBA, MCA and related Courses were given umpteen Value and MBAs of 25-26 years of Age, were recruited with high starting Pay-packages. There was a sea-gap between the Youths of the same Age who used to get Rs 10,000 – 15,000/- with the same Years of quality Education and the Youths of 21st Century who started getting Rs 40,000 – Rs 50,000/- after doing MBAs or MCAs. Per-Capita Incomes boomed further with many Students getting recruited to IT Companies and other flourishing Industries at various levels with ever increasing Salaries.


The main Industries which were directly affected by this Boom were Aviation, Hospitality, Real Estate and Banking.

More-and-more people, at this time, started travelling by Flights instead of Trains, even for short Distances. They started opting to stay at a 5-Star Hotel on Vacations in place of 2 or 3-Star, which their Parents preferred. This happened due to the extra Disposable Incomes within Families. So, in short, the Graph was going higher-and-higher in consonance with the Stock Exchange and India’s GDP, which was nearing 9% by the end of the last Decade.

2011 – Present: Whatever goes up has to come down. Everything in the World is Cyclical in Nature and situations repeat themselves. Similarly, with every Boom comes a blast too. Too much of anything is dangerous and this is what is happening since the end of the last Decade. Because of so much Demand, lots of IT and Management Institutes came up in every nook-and-corner and were charging heavy Fees. But, Jobs were limited and Supply of Job-seekers was high. The result was that even highly-qualified MBAs, MCAs and Engineers were not getting the Jobs they deserved and they started opting for low-paying Jobs which were nowhere related to their Qualifications. 

As in the time of Boom, the Industries worst affected during this low-Phase were Aviation, Hospitality, Real Estate and Banking along with IT. The GDP currently is trailing at the levels of around 5% which is very very low when compared to that of last decade. 

The Professionals directly affected were Software Engineers and Management people. Those who were indirectly affected were Bankers and Aviation Professionals. There was a lot of Competition within the Industries as many big and small Businesses came up and it affected the Financial Health of these Corporations. The Times were very different than those from 1995 – 2000 when only a few Companies enjoyed Monopolies. Many Corporations started filing for Bankruptcies now and were Firing their Staffs. Highly Qualified people were now becoming Jobless and were settling for low-paying Jobs. 

As a result, people have started downgrading their Lifestyle now. They are again opting for Trains than Flights. This has been proved by the dismal Performances of all the Airlines in India since last few Years. They are again settling for 2-3 Star Hotels. So, overall they are again downgrading their Life which is very very difficult as they are used to a flamboyant Lifestyle. 

This is what has been termed as Recession which was witnessed in 2008 and is again raising its Hood. There are a lot of Lessons to be learnt both by our Governments and Industry Intelligentsia otherwise situation can go out of control.

The above was a Synopsis of the Reason for the Crisis which has affected all of us in some way or the other. In the following Chapters, we will discuss the Subject in more detail. 

1) Economic boompreceding the crash.

2) A Recession going on for a while. Mostly top gurus and players in business and government were aware of it. General public did not realize it for a while and remained in the mood of boom. By the time the Recession and economic slow down becomes known in general public it is too late. Large proportion of small investors and general public looses every thing they had and owned.

3) During the boom, before crash, under the influence of corporations and their lobbies, government ventures out in the world, mostly in the form of war or wars, to claim more influence and control in international affairs and in the national affairs of other countries, resulting into huge debts and deficits.

4) Bad business practices getting more and more common in corporations and banks, right before crash. 

5) Growing unemployment, under-employment, and seriously compromised buying power of average consumer.


Objectives

We will be reviewing two major causes of Recession of 2008, the preexisting low interest rate and high risk investments made due to low government regulations especially in the housing market. It was observed that around 2001, the government to boost the economic growth lowered the interest rate and for the most of the boom period of 2001-2007 it remained under 1%. It gave business and people access to abundance in easy credit which resulted in economic growth. As we will review, it is usually a short term measure and the adverse effects of such growth rise up sooner or later. The second area of focus will be high risk investment. The low interest rate persuaded investors to seek an alternative of secure government investments with low returns to more profitable avenues with high risk. One of the chief areas was the sub-prime markets as the investors had already utilized the credit-worthy borrowers and now they moved to riskier investments with high returns. The subprime mortgage became the favorite for investment as the regulations were relaxed to allow disadvantage people to obtain homes.

Literature Review

We will be reviewing the literature on the two causes of the Recession. First we will be reviewing the interest rate will be going through the studies which recommends that its effects on economic growth. We will be also looking at the effect of interest rate other decisions which caused the investors to opt for high risk investments and sub-prime investments...

4 years The bursting of the speculative bubble in shares led to further selling as people who had borrowed money to buy shares had to cash them in, when their loans were called in. Also called the Great Crash or the Wall Street Crash, leading to the Great Depression. Recession of 1937–1938 (U.S.) mid-1937 to mid-1938 1 year This share price fall was triggered by an economic Recession within the Great Depression and doubts about the effectiveness of Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal policy.

In our Next Blogs will Cover Following Topics 

Great Global Recession
Global Recession Causes 
Global Recession in Asia
Global Recession in USA
Recession in UK
What Is Recession
Economic Recession 
UK Recession Timeline
UK Recession Recovery
UK Recession Causes
UK Recession Facts
Double-Dip Recession UK
Recent Recession in the UK
Global Recession Causes and Consequences
Top 10 Us Industries
Top 10 Largest Industries
Top United States Industries
U.S. Growth Industries
Top  Recession Hit Industries in America

Blog By  

Pragya Banerjee MBA (Finance); 7+ years of work experience
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